Pinterest Google+

Predicting the results for presidential debates is a bit like predicting the weather. You can give it your best guess but you never really know how stormy things will get. PredictIt has turned it into a business and furthermore an event, as they hosted a watch party for the republican debate last night at Union Pub.

PredictIt is a real money online stock and prediction market for politics. Basically, the event can be summarized as four things Washingtonians live for: beer, money, politics, and games.


The traders’ conclusions:

  • Traders seem confident that Carly Fiorina was the winner of last night’s debate as shares on Fiorina more than doubled during the event, rising from 32 cents to 72 cents.
  • Bush is still seen as the favorite to win the 2016 Republican nomination.  Rubio, Trump, and Fiorina now trail more than 10 cents behind Bush, battling for second place.
  • Ben Carson was the biggest loser dropping 47 cents in the polls, followed by Trump, whose shares are trading at 43 cents.